KLAS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

79%

68%

63%

22%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

ICONNO 45.1¢Risks 45.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.15u · ICON −45.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	76.4%	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	69.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	87.8%	—	44.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	70.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	57.8%	—	46.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	72.5%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	1.7%	38.7%	41.3%	48.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	59.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	80.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	78.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	75.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	75.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	22%	65.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261027-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 74°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗