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KLAS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
23%
HRES
18%
EPS
4%
WN2
3%
ICON
3%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 13.1¢Risks 13.10u
VS
ICONNO 86.9¢Risks 86.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.90u · ICON −86.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%———0.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.0%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:001.5%———1.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.7%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:007.5%———3.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0013.1%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%———1.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0021.2%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.4%———2.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.8%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:002.2%———3.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.2%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.6%———1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:008.3%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%———1.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.3%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:002.2%———1.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:001.1%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.9%———1.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:007.6%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.5%———1.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.7%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.7%—18.5%—1.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:009.4%—12.8%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:009.8%———3.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:007.1%—0.5%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:007.1%—28.5%—3.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0011.8%—11.2%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0011.0%—5.5%—2.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:008.1%—10.9%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:008.5%0.0%1.6%1.8%2.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:007.1%—4.9%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single23%80.3°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES18%78.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%75.8°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%75.2°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON3%65.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend3%74.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261027-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗