KLAX / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

92%

74%

66%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.2¢Risks 82.25u

HRESNO 17.8¢Risks 17.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.75u · HRES −17.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T15:34:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T15:28:47+00:00	95.7%	75.5%	95.5%	71.6%	94.3%
2026-09-14T16:13:53+00:00	95.7%	75.5%	95.5%	71.6%	94.3%
2026-09-14T16:58:59+00:00	95.7%	75.5%	95.5%	71.6%	94.3%
2026-09-14T17:44:05+00:00	95.7%	75.5%	98.0%	71.6%	94.3%
2026-09-14T18:29:13+00:00	95.7%	75.5%	98.0%	71.6%	94.3%
2026-09-14T19:14:18+00:00	95.7%	75.5%	98.0%	71.6%	94.3%
2026-09-14T19:59:24+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	98.0%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-14T20:44:29+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	98.0%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-14T21:29:34+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	98.0%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-14T22:14:39+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	98.0%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-14T22:59:45+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-14T23:44:53+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T00:29:59+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T01:15:06+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T02:00:12+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T02:45:17+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T03:30:36+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T04:15:42+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T05:00:48+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T05:45:53+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T06:31:01+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T07:16:08+00:00	95.5%	75.5%	97.1%	63.8%	89.7%
2026-09-15T08:01:37+00:00	96.2%	75.5%	97.1%	66.2%	91.7%
2026-09-15T08:46:44+00:00	96.2%	75.5%	97.1%	66.2%	91.7%
2026-09-15T09:31:49+00:00	96.2%	75.5%	97.1%	66.2%	91.7%
2026-09-15T10:16:59+00:00	96.2%	75.5%	97.1%	66.2%	91.7%
2026-09-15T11:02:13+00:00	96.2%	72.8%	98.3%	66.2%	91.7%
2026-09-15T11:47:19+00:00	96.2%	72.8%	98.3%	66.2%	91.7%
2026-09-15T12:32:24+00:00	96.2%	72.8%	98.3%	66.2%	91.7%
2026-09-15T13:17:29+00:00	96.2%	72.8%	98.3%	66.2%	91.7%
2026-09-15T14:02:42+00:00	95.2%	72.8%	98.3%	66.2%	91.7%
2026-09-15T14:48:56+00:00	95.2%	72.8%	98.2%	61.5%	91.7%
2026-09-15T15:34:03+00:00	95.2%	73.9%	98.2%	66.3%	91.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	0.0003
AIFS Single	95%	81.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	0.0023
ICON	92%	79.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	0.0069
IFS Ensemble	74%	76.3°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	0.0681
IFS HRES	66%	76.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	0.1136
National Blend	58%	74.8°F	1.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	0.1739
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 03:00	0.2016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20260918-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 14 · 15:28 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 75°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗