KLAX / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

92%

74%

66%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.2¢Risks 82.25u

HRESNO 17.8¢Risks 17.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.75u · HRES −17.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	98.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	98.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	99.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	98.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	98.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	98.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	97.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	98.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	97.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	99.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	48.1%	—	—	99.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	92.7%	—	78.3%	99.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	19.8%	24.4%	—	—	99.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	83.4%	24.1%	—	99.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	81.6%	58.7%	—	99.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	82.6%	38.0%	—	99.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	78.8%	43.6%	—	98.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	—	49.2%	—	98.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	66.6%	—	—	97.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	73.8%	57.8%	—	98.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	90.8%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	74.1%	53.7%	—	98.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	86.8%	73.2%	—	—	98.9%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.3%	88.9%	70.4%	40.4%	—	98.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	85.4%	68.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	85.5%	69.7%	41.8%	—	98.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	86.2%	73.8%	—	—	99.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	87.5%	72.7%	37.1%	50.0%	98.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.7%	87.1%	73.3%	6.3%	—	99.1%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	85.3%	72.0%	35.2%	20.7%	99.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	87.4%	74.7%	39.3%	—	99.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	87.0%	70.2%	38.9%	—	98.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	86.5%	70.9%	39.8%	—	98.8%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	85.9%	69.3%	54.0%	50.0%	98.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	86.1%	67.5%	47.2%	—	99.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	90.5%	68.2%	48.5%	54.3%	99.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	90.8%	66.2%	38.1%	—	99.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	89.0%	66.8%	46.8%	51.6%	99.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	92.1%	66.1%	50.0%	—	99.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	0.0003
AIFS Single	95%	81.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	0.0023
ICON	92%	79.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	0.0069
IFS Ensemble	74%	76.3°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	0.0681
IFS HRES	66%	76.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	0.1136
National Blend	58%	74.8°F	1.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	0.1739
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 03:00	0.2016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20260918-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 14 · 15:28 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 75°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗