KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 04:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

93%

92%

63%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.3¢Risks 80.30u

EPSNO 19.7¢Risks 19.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.70u · EPS −19.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:28:10+00:00	96.9%	37.5%	85.0%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	96.9%	37.5%	88.4%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00	96.9%	37.5%	88.4%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00	96.9%	37.5%	88.4%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00	98.4%	37.5%	88.4%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00	98.4%	37.5%	88.4%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	98.4%	37.5%	88.4%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T03:45:28+00:00	98.4%	37.5%	88.4%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:56+00:00	98.4%	37.5%	88.4%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:09+00:00	98.4%	37.5%	88.0%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:18+00:00	98.4%	37.5%	88.0%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:29+00:00	98.4%	37.5%	88.0%	45.6%	96.2%
2026-10-11T07:32:45+00:00	97.6%	37.5%	88.0%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	97.6%	37.5%	88.0%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	97.6%	37.5%	88.0%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:18+00:00	97.6%	37.5%	88.0%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T10:34:23+00:00	97.6%	37.5%	88.0%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00	97.6%	43.5%	92.1%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	97.6%	43.5%	92.1%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	97.6%	43.5%	92.1%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T13:35:57+00:00	94.4%	43.5%	92.1%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	94.2%	43.6%	92.1%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	92.1%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	92.1%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	92.1%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	88.3%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	88.3%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	94.2%	42.7%	88.3%	69.8%	96.2%
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	88.3%	42.7%	88.3%	64.3%	84.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	88.3%	42.7%	88.3%	64.3%	84.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	88.3%	42.7%	88.3%	64.3%	84.5%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	88.3%	42.7%	88.3%	64.3%	84.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	88.3%	42.7%	88.3%	64.3%	84.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:38+00:00	88.3%	42.7%	75.2%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	88.3%	42.7%	75.2%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	88.3%	42.7%	75.2%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	90.7%	42.7%	75.2%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:32+00:00	90.7%	42.7%	75.2%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	90.7%	42.7%	75.2%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T04:02:05+00:00	90.7%	42.7%	75.2%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	90.7%	42.7%	75.2%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	90.7%	42.7%	77.3%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	90.7%	42.7%	77.3%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	90.7%	42.7%	77.3%	64.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T07:49:07+00:00	91.4%	42.7%	77.3%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	91.4%	42.7%	77.3%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	91.4%	42.7%	77.3%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	91.4%	42.7%	77.3%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	91.4%	42.7%	77.3%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	91.4%	42.7%	76.2%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	91.4%	46.8%	76.2%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	91.4%	46.8%	76.2%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	95.1%	46.8%	76.2%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	95.0%	46.8%	76.1%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:49+00:00	95.0%	46.8%	76.1%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	95.0%	45.6%	76.1%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	95.0%	45.6%	76.1%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	95.0%	45.6%	76.9%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	95.0%	45.6%	76.9%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	95.0%	45.6%	76.9%	75.6%	90.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	98.7%	45.6%	76.9%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	98.7%	45.6%	76.9%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	98.7%	45.6%	76.9%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	98.7%	45.6%	76.9%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	98.7%	45.6%	85.4%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	98.7%	45.6%	85.4%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	98.7%	45.6%	85.4%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	98.7%	45.6%	85.4%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	97.7%	45.6%	85.4%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	97.7%	45.6%	85.4%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	97.7%	45.6%	85.4%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T04:16:34+00:00	97.7%	45.6%	85.4%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	97.7%	45.6%	85.4%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	97.7%	45.6%	77.6%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	97.7%	45.6%	77.6%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	97.7%	45.6%	77.6%	68.6%	92.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:22+00:00	93.3%	45.6%	77.6%	65.5%	96.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	93.3%	45.6%	77.6%	65.5%	96.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	93.3%	45.6%	77.6%	65.5%	96.2%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	93.3%	45.6%	77.6%	65.5%	96.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	93.3%	45.6%	77.6%	65.5%	96.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	93.3%	48.8%	81.2%	65.5%	96.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	93.3%	48.8%	81.2%	65.5%	96.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	93.3%	48.8%	81.2%	65.5%	96.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	93.9%	48.8%	81.2%	65.5%	96.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	93.9%	48.8%	81.2%	65.5%	96.1%
2026-10-14T03:00:14+00:00	97.2%	47.7%	85.3%	84.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	97.2%	47.7%	85.3%	84.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	97.2%	47.7%	85.3%	84.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	97.2%	47.7%	85.3%	84.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	97.2%	47.7%	85.3%	84.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00	97.2%	47.7%	85.3%	84.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	98.4%	47.7%	85.3%	84.1%	98.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	98.4%	47.7%	85.3%	84.1%	98.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	98.4%	47.7%	85.3%	84.1%	98.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	98.4%	47.7%	85.3%	84.1%	98.3%
2026-10-14T10:34:54+00:00	98.4%	47.7%	85.3%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	98.4%	56.0%	91.8%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	98.4%	56.0%	91.8%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	98.4%	56.0%	91.8%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	98.8%	56.0%	91.8%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	98.8%	56.0%	91.8%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	98.8%	57.2%	91.8%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	98.8%	57.2%	91.8%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	98.8%	57.2%	91.8%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	98.8%	57.2%	93.1%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	98.8%	57.2%	93.1%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	98.8%	57.2%	93.1%	91.4%	98.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	98.9%	57.2%	93.1%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	98.9%	57.2%	93.1%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	98.9%	57.2%	93.1%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	98.9%	57.2%	93.1%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	98.9%	57.2%	93.1%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	98.9%	57.2%	92.7%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	98.9%	57.2%	92.7%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	98.9%	57.2%	92.7%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	98.7%	57.2%	92.7%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	98.7%	57.2%	92.7%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	98.7%	57.2%	92.7%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	98.7%	57.2%	92.7%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	98.7%	57.2%	92.7%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	98.7%	57.2%	91.8%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	98.7%	57.2%	91.8%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	98.7%	57.2%	91.8%	93.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:37+00:00	99.2%	57.2%	91.8%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	99.2%	57.2%	91.8%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	99.2%	57.2%	91.8%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	99.2%	57.2%	91.8%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	99.2%	57.2%	91.8%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	99.2%	57.2%	97.1%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	99.2%	59.0%	97.1%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	99.2%	59.0%	97.1%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	99.2%	59.0%	97.1%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	99.3%	58.8%	97.1%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00	99.3%	59.8%	97.1%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	99.3%	59.8%	97.1%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	99.3%	59.8%	95.0%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	99.3%	59.8%	95.0%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	99.3%	59.8%	95.0%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	99.3%	59.8%	95.0%	95.1%	99.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	95.0%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	95.0%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	95.0%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	95.0%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	96.7%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	96.7%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	96.7%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	96.7%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	96.7%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	96.7%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	96.7%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T04:25:09+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	96.7%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	97.1%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	97.1%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	97.1%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	99.1%	59.8%	97.1%	87.9%	90.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	99.4%	59.8%	97.1%	87.9%	89.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	99.4%	59.8%	97.1%	87.9%	89.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	99.4%	59.8%	97.1%	87.9%	89.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	99.4%	59.8%	97.1%	87.9%	89.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	99.4%	61.4%	96.0%	87.9%	89.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	99.4%	61.4%	96.0%	87.9%	89.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	99.4%	61.4%	96.0%	87.9%	89.9%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	99.4%	61.4%	96.0%	87.9%	89.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	99.1%	61.3%	96.0%	94.1%	89.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	99.1%	62.6%	96.0%	94.1%	89.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	99.1%	62.7%	96.0%	94.1%	89.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	99.1%	62.7%	96.0%	94.1%	89.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	99.1%	62.7%	96.0%	94.1%	89.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	99.1%	62.7%	96.0%	94.1%	89.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	99.1%	62.7%	96.0%	94.1%	89.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	98.5%	62.7%	96.0%	94.1%	92.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	98.5%	62.7%	96.0%	94.1%	92.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	98.5%	62.7%	96.0%	94.1%	92.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	98.5%	62.7%	96.0%	94.1%	92.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	98.5%	62.7%	96.0%	91.5%	92.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	98.5%	63.0%	97.5%	91.5%	92.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	98.5%	63.0%	97.5%	91.5%	92.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	98.5%	63.0%	97.5%	91.5%	92.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	97.6%	63.0%	97.5%	91.5%	92.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	97.6%	63.0%	97.5%	91.5%	92.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	97.6%	63.0%	97.5%	91.5%	92.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	97.6%	63.0%	97.5%	91.5%	92.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	97.6%	63.0%	97.5%	91.5%	92.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	>99%	91.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	98%	92.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0006
WeatherNext 2	98%	90.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0006
ICON	93%	89.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0055
IFS HRES	92%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0072
National Blend	90%	88.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0104
IFS Ensemble	63%	85.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1369

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗