KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 04:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

93%

92%

63%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.3¢Risks 80.30u

EPSNO 19.7¢Risks 19.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.70u · EPS −19.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	77.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	75.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	10.0%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	89.9%	—	—	94.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	92.0%	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	91.8%	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	98.9%	94.0%	24.6%	—	91.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	93.1%	23.2%	—	94.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	75.5%	87.8%	69.7%	—	95.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	84.6%	76.4%	82.1%	—	95.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	88.8%	71.4%	80.5%	—	97.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	52.6%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	93.5%	80.4%	74.5%	—	97.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	95.2%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	96.8%	79.7%	90.2%	—	97.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.8%	94.7%	82.3%	—	—	98.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	97.0%	81.7%	94.6%	—	98.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	97.5%	77.4%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	98.3%	83.0%	96.5%	—	99.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	99.0%	83.7%	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	99.6%	82.4%	98.8%	0.0%	99.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.8%	99.4%	88.8%	53.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	92.4%	91.0%	94.6%	—	99.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	99.6%	89.2%	96.5%	—	7.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	96.5%	78.3%	93.7%	92.9%	99.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	96.3%	86.5%	97.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	98.4%	82.7%	92.1%	91.1%	99.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	99.2%	74.7%	93.8%	—	99.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	98.2%	81.8%	87.0%	93.2%	99.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	93.0%	99.9%	84.7%	85.6%	—	99.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	98.5%	81.9%	96.6%	95.2%	99.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	97.9%	90.8%	97.7%	—	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	>99%	91.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	98%	92.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0006
WeatherNext 2	98%	90.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0006
ICON	93%	89.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0055
IFS HRES	92%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0072
National Blend	90%	88.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0104
IFS Ensemble	63%	85.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1369

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗