KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

96%

79%

78%

36%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 66.2¢Risks 66.25u

EPSNO 33.8¢Risks 33.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +33.75u · EPS −33.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	63.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	7.7%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	86.8%	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	89.3%	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	88.9%	—	—	87.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	98.3%	91.5%	19.4%	—	87.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	90.4%	17.9%	—	91.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	69.1%	83.5%	62.7%	—	93.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	79.4%	69.8%	76.4%	—	93.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	84.3%	63.9%	74.2%	—	96.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	44.0%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	90.3%	73.8%	67.0%	—	95.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	92.5%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	94.7%	72.6%	85.6%	—	95.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	91.6%	75.4%	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	94.9%	74.5%	91.4%	—	97.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	95.6%	69.2%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	96.8%	75.7%	93.9%	—	98.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	98.0%	76.3%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	99.1%	74.5%	97.6%	0.0%	99.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	98.6%	82.5%	42.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	87.3%	85.3%	90.6%	—	99.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	99.1%	82.5%	93.4%	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	93.3%	68.0%	88.8%	87.6%	99.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	92.8%	78.1%	94.0%	—	99.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	96.5%	72.7%	85.9%	84.3%	99.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	98.0%	62.3%	88.2%	—	99.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	96.0%	70.7%	77.8%	87.0%	99.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.4%	99.6%	74.0%	75.2%	—	98.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	96.3%	69.7%	92.3%	89.8%	99.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.8%	94.7%	81.9%	94.2%	—	99.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	94.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0014
AIFS Single	96%	93.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0020
National Blend	88%	88.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0146
IFS HRES	79%	89.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0449
WeatherNext 2	78%	88.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0475
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	36%	84.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.4070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗