KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

96%

79%

78%

36%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 66.2¢Risks 66.25u

EPSNO 33.8¢Risks 33.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +33.75u · EPS −33.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:55+00:00	90.8%	36.2%	73.2%	57.9%	94.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	90.8%	36.2%	73.2%	57.9%	94.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	90.8%	36.2%	82.0%	57.9%	94.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	90.8%	36.2%	82.0%	57.9%	94.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	90.8%	36.2%	82.0%	57.9%	94.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	90.8%	36.2%	82.0%	57.9%	94.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	88.4%	36.2%	82.0%	57.9%	96.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	88.4%	36.2%	82.0%	57.9%	96.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	88.4%	36.2%	82.0%	57.9%	96.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	88.4%	36.2%	82.0%	57.9%	96.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	88.4%	36.2%	78.2%	78.8%	96.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:48+00:00	88.4%	36.2%	78.2%	78.8%	96.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	88.4%	36.2%	78.2%	78.8%	96.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	95.5%	36.2%	78.2%	78.8%	96.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	95.5%	36.2%	78.2%	78.8%	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	94.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0014
AIFS Single	96%	93.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0020
National Blend	88%	88.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0146
IFS HRES	79%	89.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0449
WeatherNext 2	78%	88.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0475
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	36%	84.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.4070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗