KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

82%

79%

32%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

EPSNO 35.6¢Risks 35.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.55u · EPS −35.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	5.8%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	83.2%	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	85.9%	—	—	84.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	85.3%	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	97.4%	88.5%	14.9%	—	83.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	86.9%	13.6%	—	88.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	62.0%	78.4%	55.3%	—	90.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	73.2%	62.5%	69.8%	—	90.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	78.7%	55.8%	67.0%	—	93.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	35.8%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	85.9%	66.2%	58.7%	—	93.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	88.8%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	91.7%	64.4%	79.7%	—	93.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	87.3%	67.4%	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	91.8%	66.1%	86.9%	—	96.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.0%	92.7%	59.9%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	94.5%	67.0%	90.1%	—	97.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	96.2%	67.4%	—	—	97.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	98.3%	64.9%	95.5%	0.0%	98.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	97.3%	74.2%	31.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	80.1%	77.6%	84.7%	—	99.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	98.0%	73.7%	88.6%	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	88.2%	56.2%	81.8%	80.1%	98.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	87.2%	67.5%	89.1%	—	99.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	93.0%	60.6%	77.0%	74.9%	98.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	95.7%	48.6%	79.9%	—	98.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	91.6%	57.2%	65.5%	77.8%	98.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	99.0%	60.5%	61.9%	—	96.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	91.7%	54.7%	84.8%	80.8%	98.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.6%	88.5%	69.0%	87.7%	—	97.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	94.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0013
ICON	95%	92.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0028
IFS HRES	82%	90.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0324
WeatherNext 2	79%	89.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0449
National Blend	77%	88.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0515
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	32%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.4556

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗