KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

82%

79%

32%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

EPSNO 35.6¢Risks 35.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.55u · EPS −35.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:48+00:00	89.3%	26.7%	58.7%	63.6%	83.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	89.3%	25.2%	58.7%	63.6%	83.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	89.3%	25.2%	58.7%	63.6%	83.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	89.3%	25.2%	59.7%	63.6%	83.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	89.3%	25.2%	59.7%	63.6%	83.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	89.3%	25.2%	59.7%	63.6%	83.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	96.5%	25.2%	59.7%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	96.5%	25.2%	59.7%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	96.5%	25.2%	59.7%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	96.5%	25.2%	59.7%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	96.5%	25.2%	71.4%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	96.5%	25.2%	71.4%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	96.5%	25.2%	71.4%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	96.5%	25.2%	71.4%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	94.4%	25.2%	71.4%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	94.4%	25.2%	71.4%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	94.4%	25.2%	71.4%	55.5%	86.2%
2026-10-14T03:00:14+00:00	93.0%	25.9%	69.5%	72.6%	94.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	93.0%	25.9%	69.5%	72.6%	94.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	93.0%	25.9%	69.5%	72.6%	94.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	93.0%	25.9%	69.5%	72.6%	94.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	93.0%	25.9%	69.5%	72.6%	94.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00	93.0%	25.9%	69.5%	72.6%	94.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	95.3%	25.9%	69.5%	72.6%	94.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	95.3%	25.9%	69.5%	72.6%	94.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	95.3%	25.9%	69.5%	72.6%	94.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	95.3%	25.9%	69.5%	72.6%	94.7%
2026-10-14T10:34:54+00:00	95.3%	25.9%	69.5%	82.0%	94.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	95.3%	32.4%	78.8%	82.0%	94.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	95.3%	32.4%	78.8%	82.0%	94.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	95.3%	32.4%	78.8%	82.0%	94.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	96.3%	32.4%	78.8%	82.0%	94.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	96.4%	32.5%	78.8%	82.0%	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	94.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0013
ICON	95%	92.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0028
IFS HRES	82%	90.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0324
WeatherNext 2	79%	89.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0449
National Blend	77%	88.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0515
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	32%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.4556

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗