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KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
68%
HRES
40%
ICON
40%
WN2
35%
EPS
12%
Consensus
39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 39.6¢Risks 39.55u
VS
EPSNO 60.5¢Risks 60.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.45u · EPS −60.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-10T22:28:10+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-11T03:45:28+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-17T04:42:38+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-10T22:28:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T03:45:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T04:42:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.8% · 2026-10-10T22:28:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T03:45:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.9% · 2026-10-17T04:42:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-10T22:28:10+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-11T03:45:28+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T04:42:38+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-10T22:28:10+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T03:45:28+00:00ICON: 39.9% · 2026-10-17T04:42:38+00:00ICON: 39.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00ICON: 39.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00ICON: 39.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:0010-10 22:2810-11 02:5910-17 06:58
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:28:10+00:0078.5%12.5%42.8%14.5%87.9%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:0078.5%12.5%49.2%14.5%87.9%
2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:0078.5%12.5%49.2%14.5%87.9%
2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:0078.5%12.5%49.2%14.5%87.9%
2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:0085.9%12.5%49.2%14.5%87.9%
2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:0085.9%12.5%49.2%14.5%87.9%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:0085.9%12.5%49.2%14.5%87.9%
2026-10-11T03:45:28+00:0085.9%12.5%49.2%14.5%87.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:38+00:0067.6%11.5%45.9%40.4%39.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:0067.6%11.5%35.3%40.4%39.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:0067.6%11.5%35.3%40.4%39.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:0067.6%11.5%35.3%40.4%39.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single68%92.3°F4.0°F2026-10-16 18:000.4570
NWS forecast59%91.0°F2.1°F2026-10-17 03:000.3528
IFS HRES40%89.6°F3.7°F2026-10-16 12:000.1632
ICON40%89.6°F3.5°F2026-10-16 12:000.1592
WeatherNext 235%89.4°F2.9°F2026-10-16 18:000.1246
National Blend30%89.0°F2.8°F2026-10-17 00:000.0876
IFS Ensemble12%85.8°F3.9°F2026-10-16 00:000.0132

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 91°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗