KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

40%

40%

35%

12%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.6¢Risks 39.55u

EPSNO 60.5¢Risks 60.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.45u · EPS −60.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	36.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	63.0%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	66.4%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	64.5%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	89.1%	68.9%	4.0%	—	61.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	65.0%	3.3%	—	67.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	32.3%	50.8%	26.4%	—	71.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	42.9%	31.6%	39.0%	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	48.3%	24.5%	34.5%	—	76.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	11.1%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	57.8%	32.2%	25.5%	—	72.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	62.4%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	67.8%	28.9%	46.3%	—	71.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	57.5%	30.9%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	66.1%	28.7%	55.8%	—	79.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	67.4%	22.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	71.5%	27.6%	60.2%	—	80.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	76.3%	27.1%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	84.5%	23.8%	72.7%	0.0%	85.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	78.6%	31.5%	5.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	37.4%	34.1%	44.2%	—	89.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	80.1%	28.3%	50.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	47.5%	13.7%	36.5%	34.2%	84.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	43.6%	20.0%	47.4%	—	85.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	55.4%	14.1%	27.3%	25.1%	80.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	62.3%	7.6%	28.8%	—	74.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	47.1%	10.2%	14.6%	24.5%	78.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	78.7%	10.5%	11.2%	—	63.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	42.1%	7.1%	29.0%	23.8%	72.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	32.4%	12.3%	30.9%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	92.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4570
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
IFS HRES	40%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1632
ICON	40%	89.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1592
WeatherNext 2	35%	89.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1246
National Blend	30%	89.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0876
IFS Ensemble	12%	85.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0132

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 91°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗