KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

66%

44%

41%

34%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.2¢Risks 56.20u

WN2NO 43.8¢Risks 43.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.80u · WN2 −43.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	45.8%	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	87.2%	—	—	88.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	81.1%	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	79.2%	—	—	90.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	85.5%	68.9%	5.4%	—	91.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	86.9%	50.0%	66.3%	—	91.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	87.1%	50.8%	56.1%	—	93.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	90.0%	43.6%	50.0%	—	92.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	79.3%	45.0%	64.7%	—	92.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	23.3%	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	79.8%	38.8%	65.4%	—	91.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	83.4%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	71.8%	30.6%	37.3%	—	93.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	87.3%	26.9%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	92.8%	50.0%	82.3%	—	93.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	87.6%	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	78.8%	22.7%	65.1%	—	92.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	85.6%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	83.1%	19.8%	68.9%	—	96.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	79.4%	14.1%	0.9%	—	94.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	79.3%	14.7%	46.5%	—	95.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	80.9%	20.8%	13.9%	—	94.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	87.0%	36.5%	11.2%	45.0%	90.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	82.6%	31.4%	15.8%	—	93.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	82.7%	33.1%	30.7%	73.9%	96.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	77.9%	20.1%	36.3%	—	93.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	79.8%	29.3%	18.2%	61.4%	92.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	88.8%	24.8%	21.3%	—	94.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	87.5%	21.4%	11.7%	62.4%	94.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.4%	90.8%	22.8%	20.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	83.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	83.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗