KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

16%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 16.9¢Risks 16.90u

WN2NO 83.1¢Risks 83.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +83.10u · WN2 −83.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	19.3%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	63.5%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	52.6%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	48.6%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	57.0%	34.9%	0.7%	—	68.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	58.0%	17.9%	31.0%	—	67.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	56.8%	17.4%	21.1%	—	71.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	61.0%	12.3%	15.9%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	40.9%	12.0%	25.1%	—	63.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	3.6%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	39.6%	8.3%	24.1%	—	60.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	43.7%	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	28.2%	4.8%	7.0%	—	65.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	48.1%	3.6%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	59.6%	11.1%	38.5%	—	60.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	46.0%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	31.2%	2.1%	18.3%	—	55.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	39.5%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	34.1%	1.3%	19.0%	—	65.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	27.6%	0.6%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	26.0%	0.6%	6.1%	—	58.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	26.3%	1.0%	0.5%	—	54.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	33.1%	2.8%	0.3%	4.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	24.8%	1.8%	0.4%	—	44.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	23.0%	1.7%	1.4%	14.9%	52.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	16.4%	0.5%	1.8%	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	16.3%	0.9%	0.3%	6.3%	34.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	24.8%	0.5%	0.4%	—	38.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	20.3%	0.3%	0.1%	4.8%	36.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	22.8%	0.2%	0.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	32%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	16%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	83.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	83.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Los Angeles · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗