KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

95%

82%

80%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 89.1¢Risks 44.53u

HRESNO 10.9¢Risks 5.47u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +5.47u · HRES −5.47u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	98.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	60.8%	—	—	97.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	71.6%	—	—	97.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	13.5%	60.0%	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	98.1%	66.4%	36.9%	—	98.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	94.1%	59.4%	65.7%	—	98.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	95.9%	64.9%	58.3%	—	98.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	89.2%	87.7%	73.9%	—	98.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	94.4%	64.7%	81.6%	—	99.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	72.6%	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	97.7%	68.6%	87.8%	—	99.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	96.2%	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	95.4%	69.5%	85.6%	—	98.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	95.4%	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	97.7%	72.1%	60.6%	—	99.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	96.6%	64.7%	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	97.8%	75.7%	67.9%	—	99.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	97.8%	70.2%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	99.1%	67.9%	47.8%	0.0%	99.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	99.2%	71.4%	4.0%	—	99.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	99.4%	78.5%	80.1%	96.7%	99.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	99.4%	84.0%	81.7%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	99.8%	87.0%	80.1%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	99.9%	84.2%	79.1%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	99.8%	88.0%	82.7%	93.5%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	99.8%	86.1%	82.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	99.9%	90.5%	84.6%	97.1%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	99.9%	90.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	84.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	98%	83.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	81.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	94%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	80.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗