KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

95%

82%

80%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 89.1¢Risks 44.53u

HRESNO 10.9¢Risks 5.47u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +5.47u · HRES −5.47u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:53+00:00	97.7%	83.5%	88.4%	84.7%	99.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	97.7%	83.5%	90.7%	84.7%	99.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	97.7%	83.5%	90.7%	84.7%	99.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	97.7%	83.5%	90.7%	84.7%	99.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	97.7%	83.5%	90.7%	84.7%	99.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:55+00:00	98.3%	83.5%	90.7%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	98.3%	83.5%	90.7%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	98.3%	83.5%	90.7%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	98.3%	83.5%	90.7%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	98.3%	83.5%	90.7%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	98.3%	82.9%	93.9%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	98.3%	82.9%	93.9%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	98.3%	82.9%	93.9%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	97.0%	82.2%	93.9%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	97.0%	82.2%	93.9%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	97.0%	82.3%	93.9%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	97.0%	82.3%	93.9%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	97.0%	82.3%	91.5%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	97.0%	82.3%	91.5%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	97.0%	82.3%	91.5%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	97.0%	82.3%	91.5%	71.4%	98.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	97.9%	82.3%	91.5%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	97.9%	82.3%	91.5%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	97.9%	82.3%	91.5%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	97.9%	82.3%	91.5%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	97.9%	82.3%	92.6%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	97.9%	82.3%	92.6%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	97.9%	82.3%	92.6%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	98.3%	82.3%	92.6%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	98.3%	82.3%	92.6%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	98.3%	82.3%	92.6%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	98.3%	82.3%	92.6%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	98.3%	82.3%	92.6%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	98.3%	82.3%	95.0%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	98.3%	82.3%	95.0%	79.8%	97.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	98.3%	82.3%	95.0%	79.8%	97.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	84.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	98%	83.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	81.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	94%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	80.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗