KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

81%

78%

77%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 87.7¢Risks 87.65u

EPSNO 12.3¢Risks 12.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +12.35u · EPS −12.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	97.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	54.8%	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	96.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	65.8%	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	10.2%	53.4%	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	97.2%	59.7%	30.5%	—	97.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	91.6%	52.2%	58.7%	—	96.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	94.0%	57.6%	50.8%	—	97.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	85.1%	83.2%	67.0%	—	97.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	91.6%	56.6%	75.5%	—	99.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	65.0%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	96.2%	60.4%	82.8%	—	98.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	94.0%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	92.7%	60.9%	79.7%	—	97.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	92.6%	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	96.0%	63.4%	51.0%	—	98.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	94.3%	55.0%	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	96.0%	67.0%	58.2%	—	98.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	96.0%	60.5%	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	98.3%	57.6%	37.1%	0.0%	98.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	98.4%	61.1%	2.1%	—	99.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	98.7%	69.0%	71.0%	93.9%	99.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	84.0%	98.7%	75.6%	72.7%	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.6%	99.6%	79.2%	70.2%	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	99.8%	75.2%	68.7%	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	99.4%	80.0%	72.7%	88.0%	99.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	99.4%	76.8%	72.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	99.7%	82.8%	74.4%	93.7%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	99.8%	82.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	84.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	84.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	80.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	80.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	80.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	79.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗