KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

81%

78%

77%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 87.7¢Risks 87.65u

EPSNO 12.3¢Risks 12.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +12.35u · EPS −12.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:34+00:00	80.8%	86.3%	75.9%	83.6%	93.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	80.8%	86.3%	75.9%	83.6%	93.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	80.8%	86.3%	64.1%	83.6%	93.9%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	80.8%	86.3%	64.1%	83.6%	93.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	80.8%	86.3%	64.1%	83.6%	93.9%
2026-10-13T08:04:22+00:00	82.2%	86.3%	64.1%	45.1%	94.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	82.2%	86.3%	64.1%	45.1%	94.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	82.2%	86.3%	64.1%	45.1%	94.1%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	82.2%	86.3%	64.1%	45.1%	94.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	82.2%	86.3%	64.1%	45.1%	94.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	82.2%	85.7%	78.5%	45.1%	94.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	82.2%	85.7%	78.5%	45.1%	94.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	82.2%	85.7%	78.5%	45.1%	94.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	80.2%	85.7%	78.4%	45.1%	94.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	80.2%	85.7%	78.4%	45.1%	94.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:14+00:00	76.3%	85.2%	66.8%	42.1%	95.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	76.3%	85.2%	66.8%	42.1%	95.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	76.3%	85.2%	66.8%	42.1%	95.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	76.3%	85.2%	66.8%	42.1%	95.1%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	76.3%	85.2%	66.8%	42.1%	95.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	76.3%	85.2%	66.8%	42.1%	95.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	77.3%	85.2%	66.8%	42.1%	90.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	77.3%	85.2%	66.8%	42.1%	90.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	77.3%	85.2%	66.8%	42.1%	90.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	77.3%	85.2%	66.8%	42.1%	90.7%
2026-10-14T10:34:55+00:00	77.3%	85.2%	66.8%	48.6%	90.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	77.3%	80.1%	75.2%	48.6%	90.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	77.3%	80.1%	75.2%	48.6%	90.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	77.3%	80.1%	75.2%	48.6%	90.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	88.3%	80.1%	75.2%	48.6%	90.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	88.2%	80.1%	75.2%	48.6%	90.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	85.3%	82.8%	78.8%	73.4%	97.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	85.3%	82.8%	78.8%	73.4%	97.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	85.3%	82.8%	78.8%	73.4%	97.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	85.3%	82.8%	72.4%	73.4%	97.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	85.3%	82.8%	72.4%	73.4%	97.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	85.3%	82.8%	72.4%	73.4%	97.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	86.4%	82.8%	72.4%	73.4%	97.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	86.4%	82.8%	72.4%	73.4%	97.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	86.4%	82.8%	72.4%	73.4%	97.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	86.4%	82.8%	72.4%	73.4%	97.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	86.4%	82.8%	72.4%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	86.4%	82.8%	69.3%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	86.4%	82.8%	69.3%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	86.4%	82.8%	69.3%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	87.4%	82.8%	69.3%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	87.4%	82.8%	69.3%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	87.4%	82.8%	69.3%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	87.4%	82.8%	69.3%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	87.4%	82.8%	69.3%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	87.4%	82.8%	72.4%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	87.4%	82.8%	72.4%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	87.4%	82.8%	72.4%	65.6%	97.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:11+00:00	90.4%	82.8%	72.4%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	90.4%	82.8%	72.4%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	90.4%	82.8%	72.4%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	90.4%	82.8%	72.4%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	90.4%	82.8%	72.4%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	90.4%	76.5%	79.0%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	90.4%	76.5%	79.0%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	90.4%	76.5%	79.0%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	92.6%	76.5%	79.0%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	92.7%	76.0%	79.0%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	92.7%	77.3%	79.0%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	92.7%	77.3%	79.0%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	92.7%	77.3%	79.0%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	92.7%	77.3%	76.1%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	92.7%	77.3%	76.1%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	92.7%	77.3%	76.1%	57.7%	98.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	76.1%	78.2%	98.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	76.1%	78.2%	98.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	76.1%	78.2%	98.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	76.1%	78.2%	98.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	76.1%	78.2%	98.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	80.8%	78.2%	98.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	80.8%	78.2%	98.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	80.8%	78.2%	98.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	80.8%	78.2%	98.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	80.8%	78.2%	98.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	96.0%	77.3%	80.8%	78.2%	98.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	84.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	84.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	80.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	80.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	80.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	79.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗