KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.6¢Risks 16.55u

WN2NO 83.5¢Risks 83.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.45u · WN2 −83.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	4.4%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	6.0%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	2.6%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	41.6%	3.1%	0.4%	—	44.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	20.4%	1.6%	2.4%	—	37.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	22.8%	1.8%	1.1%	—	35.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	8.7%	7.5%	2.5%	—	35.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	12.9%	0.9%	3.4%	—	43.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.4%	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	19.6%	0.9%	4.5%	—	31.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	12.5%	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	9.4%	0.6%	2.6%	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	8.1%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	12.1%	0.5%	0.2%	—	24.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	7.6%	0.2%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	9.0%	0.4%	0.2%	—	20.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	7.6%	0.2%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	11.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	12.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	10.7%	0.1%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	10.0%	0.1%	0.2%	2.5%	23.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	8.2%	0.2%	0.1%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	13.0%	0.2%	0.1%	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	15.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	12.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.7%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	13.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	4.8%	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	87.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	81.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	81.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	79.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	80.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Los Angeles · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗