KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.6¢Risks 16.55u

WN2NO 83.5¢Risks 83.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.45u · WN2 −83.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:09+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	2.6%	3.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	2.6%	3.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	2.6%	3.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	2.6%	3.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	2.6%	3.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	2.0%	3.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	9.9%	4.1%	2.0%	3.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	9.9%	4.1%	2.0%	3.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	12.6%	4.1%	2.0%	3.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	12.7%	4.1%	2.0%	3.5%	6.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:49+00:00	12.7%	4.1%	2.0%	3.5%	6.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	12.7%	3.9%	2.0%	3.5%	6.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	12.7%	3.9%	2.0%	3.5%	6.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	12.7%	3.9%	3.2%	3.5%	6.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	12.7%	3.9%	3.2%	3.5%	6.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	12.7%	3.9%	3.2%	3.5%	6.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	3.2%	18.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	3.2%	18.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	3.2%	18.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	3.2%	18.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	4.4%	18.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	4.4%	18.0%	63.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	4.4%	18.0%	63.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	4.4%	18.0%	63.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	10.3%	3.9%	4.4%	18.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	10.3%	3.9%	4.4%	18.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	10.3%	3.9%	4.4%	18.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T04:16:35+00:00	10.3%	3.9%	4.4%	18.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	10.3%	3.9%	4.4%	18.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	10.3%	3.9%	2.0%	18.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	10.3%	3.9%	2.0%	18.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	10.3%	3.9%	2.0%	18.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T08:04:22+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	2.0%	2.6%	44.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	2.0%	2.6%	44.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	2.0%	2.6%	44.3%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	2.0%	2.6%	44.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	2.0%	2.6%	44.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	9.1%	3.3%	3.3%	2.6%	44.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	9.1%	3.3%	3.3%	2.6%	44.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	9.1%	3.3%	3.3%	2.6%	44.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	7.9%	3.3%	3.3%	2.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	7.9%	3.3%	3.3%	2.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	7.9%	3.1%	3.3%	2.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	7.9%	3.1%	3.3%	2.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	7.9%	3.1%	2.1%	2.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	7.9%	3.1%	2.1%	2.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	7.9%	3.1%	2.1%	2.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	7.9%	3.1%	2.1%	2.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	5.0%	3.1%	2.1%	2.6%	48.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	5.0%	3.1%	2.1%	2.6%	48.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	5.0%	3.1%	2.1%	2.6%	48.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	5.0%	3.1%	2.1%	2.6%	48.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	5.0%	3.1%	1.5%	2.1%	48.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:48+00:00	5.0%	3.1%	1.5%	2.1%	48.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	5.0%	3.1%	1.5%	2.1%	48.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	6.1%	3.1%	1.5%	2.1%	48.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	6.1%	3.1%	1.5%	2.1%	48.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:14+00:00	6.1%	3.1%	1.5%	2.1%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	11.4%	3.6%	1.3%	5.2%	31.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	4.7%	3.6%	0.7%	2.3%	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	87.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	81.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	81.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	79.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	80.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Los Angeles · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗