KLAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

25%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.1¢Risks 18.10u

HRESNO 81.9¢Risks 81.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.90u · HRES −81.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	3.0%	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.0%	4.3%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	15.8%	0.4%	0.3%	—	9.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	13.6%	0.3%	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.9%	0.3%	0.2%	—	42.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	1.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	—	8.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.4%	0.4%	1.3%	—	5.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.0%	0.3%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	6.6%	0.1%	0.2%	—	6.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	19.0%	0.1%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	20.3%	0.1%	0.1%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	21.1%	0.1%	—	—	31.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	19.0%	0.2%	0.8%	0.0%	29.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	25.3%	0.3%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	28.2%	1.4%	0.9%	—	29.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	10.7%	0.8%	0.0%	—	40.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	8.5%	1.9%	0.2%	0.0%	45.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	28.3%	1.1%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	13.0%	2.1%	0.1%	2.5%	53.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	13.5%	1.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	35%	82.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	82.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	79.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	75.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	77.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	75.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗