KLAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

96%

87%

85%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

EPSNO 7.7¢Risks 3.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +3.83u · EPS −3.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	84.4%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	48.8%	—	93.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	65.1%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	92.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	71.3%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	48.0%	—	90.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	85.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	12.1%	64.5%	—	93.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	54.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	57.7%	51.4%	16.2%	98.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	42.0%	44.9%	55.8%	90.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	59.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	54.6%	69.1%	35.8%	86.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	65.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	70.5%	86.4%	65.5%	85.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	62.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	78.7%	64.7%	66.2%	89.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	63.4%	68.2%	—	44.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	90.3%	39.6%	78.6%	99.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	96.8%	54.5%	—	99.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	87.1%	94.2%	41.8%	91.7%	99.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	99.5%	59.4%	—	99.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	99.6%	93.2%	94.6%	98.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	98.7%	88.1%	—	99.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	77.3%	96.7%	92.6%	98.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.1%	88.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	92.3%	90.1%	58.7%	99.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	92.5%	97.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	78.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	96%	76.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	76.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	77.0°F	9.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	68.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗