KLAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

96%

87%

85%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

EPSNO 7.7¢Risks 3.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +3.83u · EPS −3.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:10+00:00	67.9%	78.0%	68.9%	61.3%	72.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	67.9%	78.0%	70.4%	61.3%	72.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	67.9%	78.0%	70.4%	61.3%	72.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	67.9%	78.0%	70.4%	61.3%	72.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	67.9%	78.0%	70.4%	61.3%	72.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	61.1%	78.0%	70.4%	61.3%	81.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	61.1%	78.0%	70.4%	61.3%	81.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	61.1%	78.0%	70.4%	61.3%	81.6%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	61.1%	78.0%	70.4%	61.3%	81.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	61.1%	73.6%	76.7%	61.3%	81.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	61.1%	73.6%	76.7%	61.3%	81.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	61.1%	73.6%	76.7%	61.3%	81.6%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	61.1%	73.6%	76.7%	61.3%	81.6%
2026-10-16T14:20:00+00:00	76.0%	73.6%	76.7%	46.6%	81.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	76.0%	74.9%	76.7%	46.6%	81.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	76.0%	75.0%	76.7%	46.6%	81.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	76.0%	75.0%	76.7%	46.6%	81.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	76.0%	75.0%	73.7%	46.6%	81.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	76.0%	75.0%	73.7%	46.6%	81.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	76.0%	75.0%	73.7%	46.6%	81.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	88.3%	75.0%	73.7%	46.6%	86.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	88.3%	75.0%	73.7%	46.6%	86.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	88.3%	75.0%	73.7%	46.6%	86.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	88.3%	75.0%	73.7%	46.6%	86.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	88.3%	75.0%	73.7%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	88.3%	75.0%	84.7%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	88.3%	75.0%	84.7%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	88.3%	75.0%	84.7%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	86.6%	75.0%	84.7%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	86.6%	75.0%	84.7%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	86.6%	75.0%	84.7%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	86.6%	75.0%	84.7%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	86.6%	75.0%	84.7%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	86.6%	75.0%	90.6%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	86.6%	75.0%	90.6%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	86.6%	75.0%	90.6%	75.0%	86.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:11+00:00	99.1%	75.0%	90.6%	84.6%	94.1%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	99.1%	75.0%	90.6%	84.6%	94.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	99.1%	75.0%	90.6%	84.6%	94.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	99.1%	75.0%	90.6%	84.6%	94.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	99.1%	75.0%	90.6%	84.6%	94.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	99.1%	85.8%	97.5%	84.6%	94.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	99.1%	85.8%	97.5%	84.6%	94.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	99.1%	85.8%	97.5%	84.6%	94.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	97.7%	85.8%	97.5%	84.6%	94.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	97.6%	85.3%	97.5%	84.6%	94.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	97.5%	84.6%	94.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	97.5%	84.6%	94.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	97.5%	84.6%	94.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	93.0%	84.6%	94.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	93.0%	84.6%	94.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	93.0%	84.6%	94.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	93.0%	95.5%	95.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	93.0%	95.5%	95.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	93.0%	95.5%	95.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	93.0%	95.5%	95.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	93.0%	95.5%	95.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	87.0%	95.5%	95.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	87.0%	95.5%	95.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	97.6%	85.4%	87.0%	95.5%	95.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	99.3%	85.4%	87.0%	95.5%	95.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	99.3%	85.4%	87.0%	95.5%	95.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	99.3%	85.4%	87.0%	95.5%	95.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	78.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	96%	76.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	76.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	77.0°F	9.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	68.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗