KLAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

12%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.4¢Risks 4.20u

AIFSNO 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.80u · AIFS −45.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:11+00:00	0.5%	21.5%	6.0%	11.1%	3.8%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	0.5%	21.5%	6.0%	11.1%	3.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	0.5%	21.5%	6.0%	11.1%	3.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	0.5%	21.5%	6.0%	11.1%	3.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	0.5%	21.5%	6.0%	11.1%	3.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	0.5%	11.7%	1.3%	11.1%	3.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	0.5%	11.7%	1.3%	11.1%	3.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	0.5%	11.7%	1.3%	11.1%	3.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	1.4%	11.7%	1.3%	11.1%	3.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	1.3%	11.1%	3.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	1.3%	11.1%	3.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	1.3%	11.1%	3.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	1.3%	11.1%	3.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	4.1%	11.1%	3.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	4.1%	11.1%	3.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	4.1%	11.1%	3.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	4.1%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	4.1%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	4.1%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	4.1%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	4.1%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	8.2%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	8.2%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	1.4%	12.2%	8.2%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	0.3%	12.2%	8.2%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	0.3%	12.2%	8.2%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	0.3%	12.2%	8.2%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:56+00:00	0.3%	12.2%	8.2%	2.9%	2.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	1.8%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	1.8%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	1.8%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	1.8%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	2.2%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	2.2%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	2.2%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	2.2%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	2.2%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	2.2%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	2.2%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	2.2%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	0.4%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	0.4%	16.7%	12.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	0.4%	16.7%	12.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	17%	70.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	71.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	71.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	77.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	79.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261021-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗