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KLAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
17%
ICON
12%
EPS
3%
WN2
<1%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.4¢Risks 4.20u
VS
AIFSNO 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.80u · AIFS −45.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 64.5% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 84.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 35.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 50.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 38.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 28.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 79.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 37.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 56.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 27.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 26.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 31.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0064.5%———27.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0022.4%————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:003.9%———0.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0016.2%————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.8%———0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:002.4%————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:005.9%———0.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:003.7%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:005.1%———0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0012.6%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.4%———0.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:001.9%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.7%———0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.5%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0030.1%———0.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0016.2%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0027.8%———0.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0013.9%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0015.7%———0.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0026.9%—12.5%——
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0023.8%———1.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0018.5%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0017.0%—45.3%—4.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:007.6%—29.5%——
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0028.7%———9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0040.2%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0053.8%———5.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0029.8%—23.5%——
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0039.1%—45.5%—7.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0023.7%—11.2%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0038.0%84.1%29.4%—4.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0062.2%—39.1%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0047.2%35.6%41.6%79.1%0.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0053.6%—42.9%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0069.0%50.7%47.8%37.1%6.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0059.6%—33.3%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0064.9%38.0%24.5%56.8%9.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0057.8%—27.9%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0065.5%23.0%9.7%27.4%10.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0048.4%—29.7%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0028.6%15.7%27.9%26.5%7.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0031.1%28.8%24.6%—46.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.1%6.5%51.7%15.6%0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:008.8%1.9%36.8%—0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:008.6%3.6%49.1%5.3%0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:002.4%0.2%31.8%—0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.6%0.2%4.2%3.2%1.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:001.6%0.7%7.6%—0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:002.8%15.7%1.8%4.4%0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.0%0.4%7.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.5%4.5%5.9%31.1%0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—4.2%1.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES17%70.8°F4.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
National Blend15%71.0°F4.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON12%71.1°F4.0°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
NWS forecast10%71.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%77.1°F5.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%75.4°F3.4°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single<1%79.3°F4.3°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261021-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗