KLAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

65%

59%

45%

44%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.2¢Risks 59.20u

HRESNO 40.8¢Risks 40.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.80u · HRES −40.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	59.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	53.1%	—	85.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	30.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	39.7%	—	91.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	64.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	2.5%	63.3%	—	76.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	69.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	62.4%	59.1%	4.2%	68.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	45.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	62.9%	68.3%	37.1%	63.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	56.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	62.7%	47.7%	46.2%	71.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	57.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	59.5%	61.8%	27.4%	72.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	60.5%	—	75.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	59.9%	47.5%	55.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	23.9%	45.7%	—	62.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	55.2%	57.8%	50.9%	65.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	53.6%	59.8%	—	59.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	74.1%	58.2%	54.6%	59.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	70.8%	53.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	34.8%	48.0%	42.3%	56.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	51.0%	43.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	74%	75.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	71.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	71.6°F	9.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	68.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	68.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261022-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 70°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗