KLAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

65%

59%

45%

44%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.2¢Risks 59.20u

HRESNO 40.8¢Risks 40.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.80u · HRES −40.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:37+00:00	61.2%	60.0%	65.8%	36.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	61.2%	60.0%	65.8%	36.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	61.2%	60.0%	65.8%	36.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	61.2%	60.0%	65.8%	36.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	61.2%	60.0%	65.8%	36.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	61.2%	60.0%	71.2%	36.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	61.2%	57.0%	71.2%	36.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	61.2%	57.0%	71.2%	36.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	72.1%	57.0%	71.2%	36.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	71.9%	57.0%	70.9%	36.6%	24.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00	71.9%	59.2%	70.9%	36.6%	24.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	71.9%	59.2%	70.9%	36.6%	24.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	71.9%	59.2%	72.3%	36.6%	24.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	71.9%	59.2%	72.3%	36.6%	24.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	71.9%	59.2%	72.3%	36.6%	24.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	71.9%	59.2%	72.3%	36.6%	24.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	59.7%	59.2%	72.3%	44.4%	74.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	59.7%	59.2%	72.3%	44.4%	74.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	59.7%	59.2%	72.3%	44.4%	74.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	59.7%	59.2%	72.3%	44.4%	74.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	59.7%	59.2%	65.3%	44.4%	74.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	59.7%	59.2%	65.3%	44.4%	74.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	59.7%	59.2%	65.3%	44.4%	74.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	45.1%	59.2%	65.3%	44.4%	74.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	45.1%	59.2%	65.3%	44.4%	74.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	45.1%	59.2%	65.3%	44.4%	74.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	45.1%	59.2%	65.3%	44.4%	74.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	74%	75.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	71.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	71.6°F	9.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	68.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	68.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261022-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 70°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗