KLAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

84%

69%

64%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 77.2¢Risks 77.25u

EPSNO 22.8¢Risks 22.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +22.75u · EPS −22.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	97.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	—	—	92.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	33.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	58.7%	—	89.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	63.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	—	—	92.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	83.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	88.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	84.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	48.0%	—	84.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	78.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	19.4%	49.3%	—	82.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	62.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	87.0%	49.3%	27.5%	88.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	74.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	87.2%	77.4%	56.6%	84.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	75.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	85.4%	74.2%	77.2%	84.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	80.0%	—	42.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	83.2%	85.1%	69.8%	88.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	82.7%	—	81.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	89.9%	83.2%	70.0%	86.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	50.0%	85.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	94.3%	87.8%	68.6%	84.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	93.2%	83.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	90%	77.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	74.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	73.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	71.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	70.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 14:20 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗