KLAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

84%

69%

64%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 77.2¢Risks 77.25u

EPSNO 22.8¢Risks 22.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +22.75u · EPS −22.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:20:00+00:00	89.5%	57.2%	89.9%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	89.5%	60.6%	89.9%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	89.5%	60.6%	89.9%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	89.5%	60.6%	89.9%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	89.5%	60.6%	90.2%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	89.5%	60.6%	90.2%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	89.5%	60.6%	90.2%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	90.7%	60.6%	90.2%	71.2%	86.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	90.7%	60.6%	90.2%	71.2%	86.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	90.7%	60.6%	90.2%	71.2%	86.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	90.7%	60.6%	90.2%	71.2%	86.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	90.7%	60.6%	90.2%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	90.7%	60.6%	89.5%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	90.7%	60.6%	89.5%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	90.7%	60.6%	89.5%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	89.5%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	89.5%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	89.5%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	89.5%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	89.5%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	84.6%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	84.6%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	84.6%	83.9%	86.6%
2026-10-17T07:45:15+00:00	88.9%	60.6%	84.6%	67.5%	91.8%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	88.9%	60.6%	84.6%	67.5%	91.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	88.9%	60.6%	84.6%	67.5%	91.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	88.9%	60.6%	84.6%	67.5%	91.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	88.9%	60.6%	84.6%	67.5%	91.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	88.9%	62.7%	86.3%	67.5%	91.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	88.9%	62.7%	86.3%	67.5%	91.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	88.9%	62.7%	86.3%	67.5%	91.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	90.2%	62.7%	86.3%	67.3%	91.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	90.2%	62.6%	86.2%	67.5%	91.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	90.2%	64.4%	86.2%	67.5%	91.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	90.2%	64.4%	86.2%	67.5%	91.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	90.2%	64.4%	86.2%	67.5%	91.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	90.2%	64.4%	85.2%	67.5%	91.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	90.2%	64.4%	85.2%	67.5%	91.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	90.2%	64.4%	85.2%	67.5%	91.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	87.4%	64.4%	85.2%	69.1%	90.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	87.4%	64.4%	85.2%	69.1%	90.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	87.4%	64.4%	85.2%	69.1%	90.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	87.4%	64.4%	85.2%	69.1%	90.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	87.4%	64.4%	85.2%	69.1%	90.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	87.4%	64.4%	83.7%	69.1%	90.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	87.4%	64.4%	83.7%	69.1%	90.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	87.4%	64.4%	83.7%	69.1%	90.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	87.0%	64.4%	83.7%	69.1%	90.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	87.0%	64.4%	83.7%	69.1%	90.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	87.0%	64.4%	83.7%	69.1%	90.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	90%	77.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	74.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	73.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	71.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	70.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 14:20 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗