KLAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

84%

81%

57%

43%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 67.5¢Risks 67.50u

HRESNO 32.5¢Risks 32.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +32.50u · HRES −32.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	97.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	87.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	90.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	23.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	47.1%	—	83.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	51.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	87.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	75.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	76.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	35.4%	—	74.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	67.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	11.4%	36.1%	—	71.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	49.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	78.1%	35.6%	17.1%	80.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	62.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	78.0%	65.0%	42.0%	74.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	62.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	74.9%	60.6%	64.2%	74.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	67.4%	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	71.2%	73.9%	54.8%	78.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	70.3%	—	68.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	80.5%	70.7%	54.2%	75.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	33.4%	74.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	87.4%	76.6%	51.7%	71.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	85.0%	70.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	92%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	75.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	73.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	71.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	69.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗