KLAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

84%

81%

57%

43%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 67.5¢Risks 67.50u

HRESNO 32.5¢Risks 32.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +32.50u · HRES −32.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:56+00:00	77.6%	51.3%	71.1%	57.8%	84.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	77.6%	51.3%	71.8%	57.8%	84.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	77.6%	51.3%	71.8%	57.8%	84.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	77.6%	51.3%	71.8%	57.8%	84.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	77.6%	51.3%	71.8%	57.8%	84.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00	82.4%	51.3%	71.8%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	82.4%	51.3%	71.8%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	82.4%	51.3%	71.8%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	82.4%	51.3%	71.8%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	82.4%	51.3%	71.8%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	82.4%	61.9%	78.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	82.4%	61.9%	78.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	82.4%	61.9%	78.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	80.2%	61.8%	78.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	80.2%	61.8%	78.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	80.2%	62.3%	78.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	80.2%	62.3%	78.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	80.2%	62.3%	71.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	80.2%	62.3%	71.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	80.2%	62.3%	71.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	80.2%	62.3%	71.2%	63.5%	81.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	75.4%	62.3%	71.2%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	75.4%	62.3%	71.2%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	75.4%	62.3%	71.2%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	75.4%	62.3%	71.2%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	75.4%	62.3%	73.7%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	75.4%	62.3%	73.7%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	75.4%	62.3%	73.7%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	79.0%	62.3%	73.7%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	79.0%	62.3%	73.7%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	79.0%	62.3%	73.7%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	79.0%	62.3%	73.7%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	79.0%	62.3%	73.7%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	79.0%	62.3%	78.9%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	79.0%	62.3%	78.9%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	79.0%	62.3%	78.9%	52.8%	86.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00	83.7%	62.3%	78.9%	42.9%	92.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	83.7%	62.3%	78.9%	42.9%	92.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	83.7%	62.3%	78.9%	42.9%	92.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	83.7%	62.3%	78.9%	42.9%	92.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	83.7%	62.3%	78.9%	42.9%	92.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	81.2%	42.9%	92.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	81.2%	42.9%	92.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	92%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	75.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	73.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	71.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	69.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗