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KLAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
27%
EPS
15%
AIFS
3%
WN2
2%
ICON
1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 14.1¢Risks 14.05u
VS
ICONNO 85.9¢Risks 85.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.95u · ICON −85.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:4910-19 11:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:003.2%13.6%3.8%26.8%1.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:003.2%13.6%3.8%26.8%1.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:003.2%13.6%3.8%26.8%1.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:003.2%13.6%3.8%26.8%1.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:003.2%13.6%3.8%26.8%1.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:003.2%15.0%2.5%26.8%1.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES27%69.6°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast16%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%71.3°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%75.0°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%73.8°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend2%71.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON1%77.4°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261023-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗