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KLAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
27%
EPS
15%
AIFS
3%
WN2
2%
ICON
1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 14.1¢Risks 14.05u
VS
ICONNO 85.9¢Risks 85.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.95u · ICON −85.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 59.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 29.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 42.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-08 12:0010-14 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0066.0%———33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0030.6%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.6%———0.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:001.2%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0016.5%———0.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:001.7%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0032.0%———0.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0015.6%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:007.5%———0.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0014.3%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0010.0%———0.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0012.8%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0014.3%———0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:004.9%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0027.9%———1.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:008.5%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:004.6%———4.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0010.6%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0015.7%———3.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0017.4%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0013.0%———3.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:008.7%—55.2%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:002.9%—30.3%—5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0016.9%—26.0%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0018.9%———3.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0016.1%—9.7%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0025.4%———6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0021.6%—8.9%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0026.8%—39.1%—9.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0026.9%—12.9%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0021.3%70.0%37.4%—10.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0018.4%—25.0%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0016.2%6.9%36.9%59.7%5.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0018.0%—15.3%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0020.4%6.6%13.2%29.7%8.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0017.9%—14.3%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0022.2%7.6%15.1%12.9%7.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0021.7%—10.9%—42.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0017.9%8.7%7.5%17.9%5.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0019.5%—8.8%—9.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0024.5%4.5%8.3%17.3%6.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0020.1%33.4%6.7%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0016.1%2.2%5.4%17.8%7.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—2.6%7.5%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES27%69.6°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast16%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%71.3°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%75.0°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%73.8°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend2%71.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON1%77.4°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261023-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗