KLAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

82%

68%

48%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.0¢Risks 71.00u

EPSNO 29.0¢Risks 29.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.00u · EPS −29.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	96.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	25.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	78.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	88.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	40.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	51.9%	—	89.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	32.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	7.2%	76.2%	—	78.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	72.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	78.1%	70.2%	18.4%	82.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	86.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	75.1%	94.9%	59.4%	89.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	90.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	77.2%	82.1%	87.1%	89.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	95.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	90.7%	96.6%	80.5%	89.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	89.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	81.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	85%	79.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	76.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	75.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	74.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	72.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗