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KLAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
94%
ICON
85%
WN2
82%
HRES
68%
EPS
48%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 71.0¢Risks 71.00u
VS
EPSNO 29.0¢Risks 29.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.00u · EPS −29.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:57+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:57+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:57+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 82.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00ICON: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:57+00:0083.1%46.9%76.5%61.0%82.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:0083.1%46.9%72.8%61.0%82.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:0083.1%46.9%72.8%61.0%82.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0083.1%46.9%72.8%61.0%82.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0083.1%46.9%72.8%61.0%82.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:0093.0%46.9%72.8%68.1%84.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:0093.0%46.9%72.8%68.1%84.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0093.0%46.9%72.8%68.1%84.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:0093.0%46.9%72.8%68.1%84.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:0093.0%46.9%72.8%68.1%84.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:0093.0%47.7%81.5%68.1%84.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:0093.0%47.7%81.5%68.1%84.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0093.0%47.7%81.5%68.1%84.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0094.2%47.8%81.6%68.1%85.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:0094.2%47.8%81.6%68.1%85.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single94%81.0°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON85%79.9°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 282%76.7°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES68%75.6°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend61%74.0°F5.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%73.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble48%72.2°F5.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗