KLAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

78%

70%

55%

39%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.3¢Risks 59.30u

EPSNO 40.7¢Risks 40.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.70u · EPS −40.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	21.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	75.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	74.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	79.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	84.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	34.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	45.5%	—	85.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	26.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	5.2%	70.6%	—	72.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	66.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	72.5%	63.8%	14.1%	77.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	81.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	69.0%	92.6%	52.2%	86.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	87.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	71.1%	76.6%	82.6%	84.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	92.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	86.9%	94.7%	74.5%	85.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	84.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	79%	81.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	78.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	76.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	74.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	72.1°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗