KLAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

78%

70%

55%

39%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.3¢Risks 59.30u

EPSNO 40.7¢Risks 40.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.70u · EPS −40.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	79.8%	35.4%	66.0%	50.0%	30.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	79.8%	35.4%	66.0%	50.0%	30.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	79.8%	35.4%	66.0%	50.0%	30.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	82.6%	35.4%	66.0%	50.0%	30.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	82.6%	35.4%	65.9%	50.0%	31.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	65.9%	50.0%	31.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	65.9%	50.0%	31.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	65.9%	50.0%	31.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	81.1%	50.0%	31.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	81.1%	50.0%	31.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	82.6%	39.4%	81.1%	50.0%	31.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	81.1%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	81.1%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	81.1%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	81.1%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	81.1%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	70.1%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	70.1%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	70.1%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	70.1%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	70.1%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	78.3%	39.4%	70.1%	54.9%	79.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	79%	81.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	78.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	76.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	74.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	72.1°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗