KLAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

88%

81%

54%

50%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 69.2¢Risks 69.20u

EPSNO 30.8¢Risks 30.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +30.80u · EPS −30.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	17.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	68.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	80.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	28.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	39.1%	—	82.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	21.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	3.6%	64.5%	—	67.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	60.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	66.4%	57.0%	10.5%	72.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	76.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	62.3%	89.7%	44.9%	81.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	83.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	64.2%	70.4%	77.2%	80.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	89.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	82.1%	92.2%	67.7%	80.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	79.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	81.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	80.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	78.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	75.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	74.5°F	6.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗