KLAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

88%

81%

54%

50%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 69.2¢Risks 69.20u

EPSNO 30.8¢Risks 30.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +30.80u · EPS −30.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	68.1%	56.6%	77.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	68.1%	56.6%	77.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	65.0%	56.6%	77.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	65.0%	56.6%	77.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	65.0%	56.6%	77.5%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	88.5%	33.4%	65.0%	56.6%	77.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	65.0%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	65.0%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	65.0%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	65.0%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	71.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	71.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	71.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	71.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	71.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	71.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	71.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	71.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	82.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	82.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	81.7%	33.4%	82.1%	78.5%	78.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00	87.5%	33.4%	82.1%	54.1%	88.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	87.5%	33.4%	82.1%	54.1%	88.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	87.5%	33.4%	82.1%	54.1%	88.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	87.5%	33.4%	82.1%	54.1%	88.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	87.5%	33.4%	82.1%	54.1%	88.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	87.5%	50.0%	80.9%	54.1%	88.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	87.5%	50.0%	80.9%	54.1%	88.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	81.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	80.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	78.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	75.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	74.5°F	6.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗