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KLAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
39%
AIFS
25%
WN2
9%
HRES
7%
EPS
7%
Consensus
8%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 23.2¢Risks 23.20u
VS
HRESNO 76.8¢Risks 76.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +76.80u · HRES −76.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 55.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 66.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-09 12:0010-14 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.1%———3.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0015.9%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:008.9%———55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0014.0%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0017.5%———64.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0012.0%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0017.5%———66.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0017.2%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0023.2%———65.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0035.4%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:004.0%———52.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0055.8%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0010.5%———35.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0015.2%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:008.1%———28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0012.0%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0023.9%———35.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0017.4%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0056.0%———27.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0029.2%—1.4%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0035.6%———23.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0051.7%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:005.3%———27.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:005.5%—19.7%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:004.7%———24.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:003.8%—29.9%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0010.1%———15.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0014.1%—2.2%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0022.6%—4.0%—28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0015.9%—1.1%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:006.2%0.0%12.4%—13.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:007.1%—9.8%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:004.7%12.2%7.9%0.2%15.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:004.4%—18.4%——
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0010.3%9.0%35.0%3.8%22.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0011.5%—23.2%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:006.3%8.7%11.8%16.4%18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:005.9%—30.6%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:007.8%18.9%35.2%9.0%17.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——15.3%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON39%81.8°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single25%80.2°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%78.1°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES7%75.1°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%74.5°F6.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend7%77.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast5%75.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261024-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗