KLAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

73%

64%

64%

43%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.85u

ICONNO 34.2¢Risks 34.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.15u · ICON −34.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	97.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	40.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	83.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	44.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	66.5%	—	86.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	73.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	80.7%	—	77.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	97.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	13.9%	99.8%	—	83.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	99.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	79.1%	94.0%	44.4%	91.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	99.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	99.2%	99.8%	94.5%	94.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	99.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	78.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	74.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	73.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	73.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	69.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗