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KLAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
88%
WN2
73%
EPS
64%
HRES
64%
ICON
43%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.85u
VS
ICONNO 34.2¢Risks 34.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.15u · ICON −34.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 43.2% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 11:03
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:0088.5%64.4%73.3%63.9%43.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:0088.5%64.4%73.3%63.9%43.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0088.5%64.4%73.3%63.9%43.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:0088.5%64.4%73.3%63.9%43.2%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:0088.5%64.4%73.3%63.9%43.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single88%78.4°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 273%74.9°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble64%73.9°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES64%73.8°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend54%72.0°F5.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON43%69.8°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗