KLAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

85%

74%

73%

53%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 75.3¢Risks 75.30u

EPSNO 24.7¢Risks 24.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +24.70u · EPS −24.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	25.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	28.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	48.8%	—	73.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	55.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	64.6%	—	60.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	92.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	5.6%	99.0%	—	67.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	96.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	61.1%	84.7%	25.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	97.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	96.8%	99.1%	85.2%	84.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	97.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	88.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	80.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	77.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	78.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	77.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	75.0°F	6.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗