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KLAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
97%
AIFS
85%
WN2
74%
HRES
73%
EPS
53%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 75.3¢Risks 75.30u
VS
EPSNO 24.7¢Risks 24.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +24.70u · EPS −24.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 97.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00ICON: 97.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 97.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 97.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 97.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00ICON: 97.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00ICON: 97.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 08:1910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:0079.8%54.2%74.1%84.7%73.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:0079.8%54.2%75.9%84.7%73.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:0079.8%54.2%75.9%84.7%73.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0079.8%54.2%75.9%84.7%73.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:0085.4%54.2%75.9%73.3%97.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0085.4%54.2%75.9%73.3%97.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0085.4%54.2%75.9%73.3%97.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0085.4%54.2%75.9%73.3%97.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:0085.4%54.2%75.9%73.3%97.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:0085.4%53.3%74.0%73.3%97.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:0085.4%53.3%74.0%73.3%97.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON97%88.3°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single85%80.2°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 274%77.5°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES73%78.6°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend65%77.0°F6.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%75.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble53%75.0°F6.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗