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KLAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
75%
AIFS
27%
HRES
23%
WN2
10%
EPS
8%
Consensus
16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 41.4¢Risks 41.40u
VS
EPSNO 58.6¢Risks 58.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.60u · EPS −58.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 21:4310-19 11:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:56+00:0018.8%7.0%5.8%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:0018.8%7.0%5.8%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0018.8%7.0%5.8%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:0018.8%7.0%5.8%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:0018.8%7.0%5.8%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:0018.8%13.5%9.2%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:0018.8%13.5%9.2%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0018.8%13.5%9.2%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:0036.4%13.7%9.2%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:0036.4%13.7%9.2%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:0036.4%13.7%9.2%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:0036.4%13.7%9.2%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:0036.4%13.7%10.5%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:0036.4%13.7%10.5%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:0036.4%13.7%10.5%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:0036.4%13.7%10.5%6.6%8.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:0033.8%13.7%10.5%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:0033.8%13.7%10.5%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:0033.8%13.7%10.5%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:0033.8%13.7%10.5%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:0033.8%13.7%13.2%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:0033.8%13.7%13.2%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:0033.8%13.7%13.2%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:0023.3%13.7%13.2%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:0023.3%13.7%13.2%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:0023.3%13.7%13.2%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:0023.3%13.7%13.2%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:0023.3%13.7%13.2%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:0023.3%13.7%14.5%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:0023.3%13.7%14.5%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0023.3%13.7%14.5%35.5%39.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:0027.1%13.7%14.5%22.9%74.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0027.1%13.7%14.5%22.9%74.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0027.1%13.7%14.5%22.9%74.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0027.1%13.7%14.5%22.9%74.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:0027.1%13.7%14.5%22.9%74.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:0027.1%7.9%9.9%22.9%74.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON75%88.3°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single27%80.2°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES23%78.6°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend16%77.0°F6.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 210%77.5°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%75.0°F6.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%75.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗