KLAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

27%

23%

10%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.4¢Risks 41.40u

EPSNO 58.6¢Risks 58.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.60u · EPS −58.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	2.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	2.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	8.1%	—	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	9.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	13.7%	—	11.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	48.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.1%	78.7%	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	60.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	9.6%	28.6%	1.2%	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	65.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	58.0%	75.7%	27.2%	26.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	58.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	75%	88.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	80.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	78.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	77.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	77.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	75.0°F	6.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗