Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 90°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
ICON +77.70u · WN2 −77.70u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICON | 43% | 88.3°F | 7.2°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 5% | 78.6°F | 6.6°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
| AIFS Single | 4% | 80.2°F | 5.4°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | 3% | 75.3°F | 7.5°F | 2026-10-18 00:00 | Pending |
| National Blend | 2% | 75.0°F | 6.7°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | 1% | 78.1°F | 5.1°F | 2026-10-18 18:00 | Pending |
| NWS forecast | <1% | 75.0°F | 5.9°F | 2026-10-19 03:00 | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 90°F · KLAX
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 20:13 UTC
Original listing: A 90° day in Los Angeles · Sun Oct 25
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗