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KLAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
43%
HRES
5%
AIFS
4%
EPS
3%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 22.3¢Risks 22.30u
VS
WN2NO 77.7¢Risks 77.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.70u · WN2 −77.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-10 12:0010-15 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.0%———0.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.7%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:002.8%———24.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:006.9%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0020.4%———35.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:008.3%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.8%———17.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0025.7%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.0%———14.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:003.1%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.9%———9.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.0%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:004.5%———13.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:005.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:005.3%———7.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0020.4%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:009.5%———7.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0024.4%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.9%———12.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:001.0%—0.3%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.2%———9.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.7%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.1%———4.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.3%—0.2%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:001.2%—1.0%—5.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.2%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.3%———1.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.4%—1.2%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.2%—1.9%—1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.2%—14.7%——
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%41.3%—1.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:001.9%—22.4%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.5%0.9%5.2%0.1%3.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.6%—24.7%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.8%18.4%34.3%4.4%4.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——17.9%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON43%88.3°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%78.6°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single4%80.2°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%75.3°F7.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend2%75.0°F6.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%78.1°F5.1°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
NWS forecast<1%75.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 20:13 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Los Angeles · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗