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KLAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
43%
HRES
5%
AIFS
4%
EPS
3%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 22.3¢Risks 22.30u
VS
WN2NO 77.7¢Risks 77.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.70u · WN2 −77.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:0010-18 20:1310-19 00:4410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:007.2%2.9%0.8%9.6%18.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:007.2%2.9%0.8%9.6%18.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:007.2%2.9%0.8%9.6%18.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:007.2%2.9%0.8%9.6%18.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:007.2%2.9%1.1%9.6%19.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:007.2%2.9%1.1%9.6%19.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:007.2%2.9%1.1%9.6%19.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:004.3%2.9%1.3%4.9%43.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:004.3%2.9%1.3%4.9%43.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:004.3%2.9%1.3%4.9%43.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:004.3%2.9%1.3%4.9%43.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:004.3%2.9%1.3%4.9%43.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON43%88.3°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%78.6°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single4%80.2°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%75.3°F7.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend2%75.0°F6.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%78.1°F5.1°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
NWS forecast<1%75.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 20:13 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Los Angeles · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗