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KLAX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
31%
HRES
29%
ICON
14%
EPS
14%
WN2
7%
Consensus
13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 19.2¢Risks 19.20u
VS
WN2NO 80.8¢Risks 80.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.80u · WN2 −80.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 61.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 68.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-11 12:0010-15 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSIFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.4%——2.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0014.9%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:009.1%——46.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0063.1%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0010.0%——35.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:006.8%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0025.2%——31.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0024.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0017.9%——41.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0014.3%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:006.6%——24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0044.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0011.2%——24.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0050.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0012.8%——40.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:005.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:003.2%——26.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0014.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.0%——17.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:001.3%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:005.5%——15.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:001.6%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:006.5%——8.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:004.4%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.2%—3.9%6.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.2%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:002.6%—42.5%7.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0010.6%—25.6%—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0012.3%—3.0%16.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0015.5%—40.8%—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0012.4%0.4%61.3%23.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——68.6%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single31%80.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES29%79.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON14%72.7°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble14%75.8°F7.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend14%75.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%76.0°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗